27 FEB 2001
By David Gonzales

In case you're wondering exactly when it's going to snow this winter, I can tell you:

It will snow on December 1-3, 8-10, and 22-25— and on January 10-25. (It's going to be a great January.) Also on February 13-20. And on March 1-8 and 20-24.

At least, that's what the Old Farmer's Almanac claims. In the summary for its Rocky Mountains forecast for the 2000-2001 winter, the 209-year-old almanac predicts, "The most widespread substantial snowfalls will occur in early to mid-November, mid-January, and mid-February."

So far, its predictions look pretty good. The Rockies (at least, some of the Rockies) did get lots of snow in early to mid-November. And for the specific dates of November 24-30, the almanac predicts "cold, rain and snow."

It's snowing right now, as I write this.

Of course, serious meteorologists laugh at the Old Farmer's Almanac "weather prognostications," which are "derived...from a secret formula devised by the founder of this Almanac in 1792, enhanced by the most modern scientific calculations based on solar activity and current meteorological data."

Even the almanac's publisher seems a bit snide about the whole thing. When the newest edition of the almanac was released this September, publisher Jud Hale claimed his book's accuracy rate was exactly 80 percent. "Never '81 and never '79," he said.

You'd think that in today's hyper-technological era, with a super computer on every desktop and satellites crowding the skies, serious science could outdo the Almanac, and actually make a plausible forecast about the coming months.

But the most daring statement most serious meteorologists want to make about this winter is that temperatures should be a bit cooler and precipitation more normal, now that El Niño and La Niña are behind us. Which leaves us with such edifying statements as the one made October 12 by National Weather Service director Jack Kelly, who said, "As in most normal years . . . cold weather will be a part of your routine this winter."

Thanks, Jack.

But what does the end of the Niño and Niña phenomena mean to us? Hesitantly, local storm sage Jim Woodmency suggests, "I think people should be prepared for something a bit more normal. Or below normal."

Basically, says Woodmency, El Niño and La Niña were very good to us, and we can't expect the bounty to continue.

"We've had five winters in a row with above normal snowfall," Woodmency explains. "And the '96-'97 winter was the biggest we've seen in 30-odd years. The last time we had a below normal winter was in '93-'94. In '91-'92, we got only 150 inches of snow. People who have only lived here two or three years don't know what a 200-inch year is like."

Many locals, however, are optimistic about our coming winter, due to this summer's droughts and fires. They point to the snowy 88-89 winter after the Yellowstone fires.

Woodmency, however, has looked into those numbers and is not so impressed.

"In '88-'89, we had a great early season start," he says. "November was incredibly snowy, and it continued through December. But the snowfall averaged out over the season, and it ended up being just a bit above normal."

As it turns out, forest fires do not make for increased snowfall. Unlike volcanic ash, which remains high in the atmosphere months after an eruption, ash from forest fires gets "washed out of the atmosphere and precipitated out."

More importantly, ash from smoke doesn't help in the first place. Basically, every single snowflake that falls from the sky is formed around a speck of dust or some other kind of "condensation nuclei." According to Woodmency, volcanic ash mimics natural atmospheric particles and therefore makes suitable condensation nuclei. But ash particles from smoke, which lack the appropriate size and geometric shape, do not.

Interestingly enough, though the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (which operates the National Weather Service) will only speak vaguely about the coming winter, it claims that more droughts and other "extreme weather events" are likely in the near future.

"As our climate changes, extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, heavy rainfall, tropical storms and hurricanes are expected to increase," reported the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier this autumn.

It's a pretty terrifying report, and goes on to say, "The annual number of catastrophes grew from 10 per year in the 1950s to 35 per year in the 1990s."

Of course, such climatic upheavals aren't going to make meteorologists' jobs any easier. They're already difficult enough, what with snow desperate skiers like myself pressing Jim Woodmency to make specific predictions about this winter. Don't worry, he says, you won't be disappointed.

"It would have to be a really exceptionally bad winter not to keep us in pretty good shape," Woody says reassuringly. "We're in such a good location here. Jackson Hole can pretty much count on enough snow to keep skiers happy."

That's as far as he would go. He wouldn't give numbers. Nor dates. If you ask him for such, you can count on getting the following answer:

"We're working on it," Woody will say. "Call me back on April 1 and I'll tell you."

© 2000 David Gonzales. All Rights Reserved.

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